aside from the fact that my chances of any decent win on the lottery are millions to 1, are they improved any if I enter say 10 different goes for one week, over one set of number for 10 lottery draws. I suspect my chances stay the same, but just want to check if anyone is cleverer than me on this.
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SeasideMan
Pro - 2008-10-06 @ 12:29:04
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sidejump
- 2008-10-06 @ 15:40:18
thought so, thank you
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LandersUK
- http://www.iamlanders.com
- 2008-10-06 @ 12:44:12
What Tom said. The way the probability of winning is worked out is how many different combinations of numbers there are, not by how many people play. As only one set of numbers is drawn you still only have the same chance of winning.
But...
Lets say you bought ten sets of the same numbers. Ten tickets all with the same numbers on. Let say that the jackpot is £11million and on lottery night you and one other person won.
You would get £10million and other person would get £1million.-
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sidejump
- 2008-10-06 @ 15:40:56
now that would be good, but not for that other person
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grumpus
Pro - http://bobmblack.blog.co.uk
- 2008-10-06 @ 13:40:54
I'm guessing a bit. The chances of you picking the correct six numbers are approximately 14million to 1.
To cover all numbers from 1 to 49, you would need to buy 9 different lines each week, (8x6=48), reducing the odds to approx 1.5million to 1 for that draw.
The winning six numbers would normally be spread evenly over your 9 lines but there is a slight chance you may get three numbers in just one of your lines giving you a £10 win.
Even so the odds of that happening (whatever they are?) make it a very poor investment, but increase the fun as you always get all the numbers!
Don't try this at home kids, unless you like giving money to charity!
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sidejump
- 2008-10-06 @ 15:42:40
yes I know it's a mugs game. But someone has to win.
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DominicGee
- 2008-10-06 @ 15:24:43
Didn't someone say Chance favours those in motion. Best way of working this out is to check what percentage of lottery wins were won on repeated numbers compared to those who chose their numbers randomly each week.
I'm not sure of the effect those results have on future liklihoods as I don't really get probability maths anyway - if you flick a coin and it lands heads up ten times in a row, is the probability of it landin on its head again 1/2 or is it much less likely? There;s only one way to find out (and even then all you have is what DID happen, not what WILL happen) arrgh.-
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sidejump
- 2008-10-06 @ 15:42:02
not sure if that is a help, but thanks anyway -
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SeasideMan
Pro
- 2008-10-06 @ 15:49:55
If it's a "fair" coin, the probability is still half of it being a head even after 10 heads in a row. I proved this once with a computer program.
Tom.-
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DominicGee
- 2008-10-06 @ 16:03:25
Doesn't that negate probability maths then - that probabilities don't change despite what has happened in the past.
Can you explain in the simplest terms the computer program. My logic tells me that the liklihood stays the same, but instinct says that there MUST be a reduction in probability, otherwise the very idea of probability is unlikely to exist at all (i.e. the feeling that certain patterns make the future outcomes more/less likely).
The idea that always baffled me is - if a man is struck by lightening 5 times in his life - is the liklihood of him stuck again higher (empirical evidence suggests that lightening can and will strick this man), or is it less likely (the odds of it happeing once was tiny, 5 times in a row is infintesimally small).-
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SeasideMan
Pro
- 2008-10-06 @ 16:15:29
Past events have no effect whatsoever on any one toss of a coin. It balances out over time.
The program had access to a subroutine that generated random numbers. I used these numbers to simulate a coin toss. I then "tossed" the virtual coin a million times and stored the results. I then scanned the results for times when there were 10 heads or 10 tails on the trot. When I found one, I inspected the next toss to see if it was the same or different and collated the results. The result: the chance is still 50/50 of the 11th toss being the same (or different).
It has to be this way, as long as it's a fair coin and toss. How on earth can previous events or future events affect this toss? They can't, of course because each toss is a separate event.
In the case of lightning strikes, the repeat strikes tend to be on people like park rangers who spend a lot of time outside during storms.
Tom.-
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DominicGee
- 2008-10-06 @ 17:05:37
Ok, good, thanks for explaining. I didn't think that there would be any change in the liklihood, as you say, how could there be.
Cheers -
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antlady69
Pro - http://antmusic-forever.blog.co.uk
- 2008-10-07 @ 06:17:17
SJ!!! That's a maths question! How in the world can you ask a MATHS question???
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sidejump
- 2008-10-07 @ 11:49:51
i know
and I knew the answer, but my instincts were telling me lots of numbers increases my chances of winning, rather than the same few each week. Illogical I know, but who said women were logical? -
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kaimi0achava
- 2008-10-08 @ 23:31:06
nobody logical, thats for sure.
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Znethru
Pro - http://www.febland.net/
- 2008-10-09 @ 00:16:50
My advice? Wait till there is a humongous jackpot and buy about 20 tickets all in one go.
Don't waste your money on the regular sized jackpots! -
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same. I can share the math if you are interested. Same on the rollette by the way.
Your chances stay the same. Buying 10 tickets multiplies your winning chance by 10, but it doesn't matter if you do it in 1 week or 10.
Tom.